Before one can fully understand what I’m talking about, one should read The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy. However, as most of you won’t, I will give some faint, sketchy foundational concepts before I get into the good stuff.
The Definition of a Great Power
A Great Power is essentially a country that possesses the ability to defeat in war and/or impose its will on, or over, any other country but its equals (that is, other Great Powers). The number of Great Powers varies from era to era, but their number has never exceeded ten. When one country has risen so far above all of its rivals that it is able to dominate them, then it is called a Super Power. There can be only two Super Powers at a time. After WWII the US and USSR were the only Great Powers left standing, really, so they were called Super Powers. After the fall of the USSR and the temporary weakening of Russia , the US was the lone Super Power.Since WWII, the qualifications to be a World Power are thus: Economic/Industrial suzerainty (this can take several forms), Military power, Nuclear arms, Strategic Geographic position, and Technological Superiority. A seat on the UN Security Council doesn’t hurt either.
List of Current and Potential Great Powers
At this moment there are four Great Powers and two potential Great Powers. The US is the first and greatest of the Powers, but is no longer a Super Power. China is fast growing, and has achieved in the past ten years the coveted status of Great Power.
Russia , while still a shadow of its Soviet and Imperial former selves, has just enough bases covered to remain in the Powers, and is deliberately increasing its strength in several key areas.
Last, but not least, is the European Union (or EU). Composed of nearly all the countries of Western and Central Europe, the EU has enough combined power to blast the rest of the world into oblivion (without nukes, although they have plenty of those, thanks to Britain and France) if only they could agree on which direction to aim. The EU tops just about every category, but is heavily fragmented and the official EU military is very small. However, if their new constitution is approved, there will be a United States of Europe.
The two potential powers are Japan and India .
Japan has technological superiority and its economy is second only to the US . As an island, it is relatively secure from land-based attack. However, its military, while state-of-the-art, is tiny and limited by its post-WWII constitution. Japan ’s population is crowded, and its native resources are about nil. It also has no nuclear weapons (also banned in its constitution), but to be fair, it has an extensive network of nuclear power plants, advanced rocket technology and the expertise to convert to a nuclear power within the maximum of several months. Due to a number of factors, such as the oil crisis (they import all of their oil) and the threat of a nuclear armed North Korea, Japan ’s Prime Minister is seeking to change the constitution and expand the military, and talk of “going nuclear” is growing.
Meanwhile, India is close to Power status as well. Unlike Japan, India has vast resources, and its population is very close to surpassing China ’s. India is a nuclear power, has an immense army, and its economy is booming. However, its level of technology is second-rate, and its military suffers from that. Also, India , while shielded by the Himalayas in the north and the Burmese jungles in the east, has a nuclear armed second-rate power Pakistan on the west. Pakistan is well-connected diplomatically and will side with whichever Power attempts to thwart India ’s national aims. India has several border disputes with China as well. I will expand on the mechanics and prospects of each Power and potential Power in further posts, as well as commenting on relevant news related to the Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. Stay tuned…
